April Risk Barometer - Middle East | Serbia / Global Guardian

Slow-Motion Iran Crisis Begins

On 12 March 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader setting a two-month deadline for negotiating a new nuclear deal. In the following weeks, the U.S. deployed strategic military assets to the Middle East as both nations exchanged threats of military action. Diplomatic talks are scheduled to begin on 12 April 2025 in Oman. If diplomacy collapses, military escalation could endanger regional assets and personnel while triggering a global energy price shock.

The situation is dynamic and unpredictable, making monitoring even more important.
Firms with assets or travelers in or from the Middle East should plan for various escalation scenarios, to include evacuation preparations.
Threats or the realization of military action could produce a global oil price shock.
With strategic assets moving from Asia to the Middle East, a U.S conflict with Iran increases the likelihood of a Taiwan Strait crisis.
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Mass Anti-Government Protests in Serbia Portend Possible Regional Disruption

On 15 March 2025, over 325,000 demonstrators marched in Belgrade, making it the largest protest in Serbian history. The protest movement was sparked by the controversy surrounding the 01 November 2024 partial collapse of a train station canopy in Novi Sad, Serbia’s second-largest city, that killed 16 people. Scrutiny of the station’s construction and student-led calls for accountability quickly evolved into a broader anti-government movement, with President Aleksandar Vučić’s government entrenching its position. Security forces and counter-protesters have confronted demonstrators with violence, including the use of sonic weapons. Pro-government media has portrayed the protests as a foreign-backed color revolution, setting the stage for a likely escalation in tensions.
Global Guardian advises avoiding all protests in Serbia and the broader Western Balkans, where demonstrations frequently escalate and face violence from both state and non-state actors.
Monitor independent media for signs of escalation. Snap elections or martial law could rapidly mobilize actors and degrade the local security environment.
Avoid rail travel in Serbia due to ongoing strikes and disruptions. Anticipate delays when traveling by road due to frequent intersection blockades.

Slow-Motion Iran Crisis Begins

Mass Anti-Government Protests in Serbia Portend Possible Regional Disruption