October Risk Barometer: Emerging Threats in Venezuela and Europe

Global Guardian's Risk Barometer highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travels—read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month in Venezuela and Europe.

U.S. Military Strikes on Narco-Boats Portend Possible Escalation Against Venezuela

In September 2025, the United States (U.S.) conducted multiple lethal strikes against suspected narcotics-smuggling boats off the coast of Venezuela, resulting in the deaths of over a dozen alleged traffickers and prompting immediate condemnation from the Venezuelan government. The operations represent a significant escalation in the use of U.S. military force in counter-narcotics missions and come against a backdrop of recent designation of multiple drug cartels and organized crime groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs). With U.S. Navy warships now deployed to the Caribbean, the risk of heightened confrontation between the United States and Venezuela is growing in the short to near term.

• Consider avoiding travel to Venezuela along with border areas of Guyana and Colombia due to potential security risks.
• Closely monitor developments on U.S.-Venezuelan relations and activity, particularly legislative or executive action relating to FTO enforcement and military authorization, along with deployment of additional U.S. military forces to the Caribbean.
• Businesses with ties to Venezuela should update risk assessments and contingency plans in event of conflict between the U.S. and Venezuela.
• Travelers and organizations should expect a volatile security landscape across the region. Read more.

Key Takeaways

• It is more likely than not that Washington is interested in regime change in Venezuela.
• The Essequibo dispute with Guyana presents an additional flashpoint for U.S.-Venezuela conflict.
• Organizations with exposure in Venezuela should prepare for conflict scenarios and potential U.S. intervention.

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Russian Incursions Raise Risk of Confrontation with NATO

A surge in Russian gray-zone provocations against North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members in September 2025 has heightened the risk of confrontation along the bloc’s eastern flank. The escalation coincides with the breakdown of U.S.-brokered peace negotiations on Ukraine. NATO has invoked Article IV twice in two weeks following drone incursions, manned airspace violations, and suspected use of maritime assets to launch disruptive drone operations. Russia’s actions increase the likelihood of airport closures, travel disruptions, and further escalation along NATO’s frontline.

• Global Guardian recommends exercising increased caution when traveling to Romania, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, and Sweden.
• Firms with personnel traveling to and from Ukraine through European airports should plan for flight delays and airport closures caused by drone activity.
• Companies connected to the European military-industrial base should conduct security audits to assess exposure to Russian espionage, sabotage, and cyberattacks. Read more.

Key Takeaways

• Russia has identified the use of drones and airport closures as a viable mechanism for exerting pressure on Europe.
• The risk of a more aggressive stage in Russia’s active measures campaign against European NATO members is growing.
• Firms with assets and personnel in Eastern Europe should plan for Russian escalation.

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