China, the new #1 world power? (One Decision)

This week, former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and guest host Mary Alice Parks sit down with Brookings fellow Jonathan Czin, former Director for China at the National Security Council. 

They discuss China’s growing confidence, its shift toward a more offensive strategy under President Trump’s second term, and the implications for a potential Taiwan invasion in 2027.

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Episode Highlights:

China’s Confidence Grows as U.S. Pushback Fades

China has been “testing and probing” through military posturing since the start of President Trump’s second term, Czin says.

By the end of 2025, it feels “very confident,” part of a broader shift in which Beijing has begun “playing offense,” enabled by a lack of U.S. “pushback.”

With Little Resistance, Beijing Shifts to a Long Game

Johnathan Czin argues that China was “very cognizant” of the U.S. lack of involvement in Taiwan.

Yet despite its confident posturing, Beijing is unlikely to put boots on the ground in 2027. Instead, he says, China is looking to “steadily accrue [...] power and influence” across the region.

A Strategy Enabled by Western Disorganization

Despite “enough irritants” in the relationship with China, neither the U.S. nor Europe have yet become “organized and disciplined” enough to “really compete with China” in the coming years, Czin says.

The U.S., he adds, must first “emotionally come to grips with the challenge.”

Don't Miss Out:

“I think it is very hard for people to come to terms with the nature of the challenge and how wide-ranging it is, that it's not just an economic issue or a cyber issue or a military issue. It's really all of the above.”

-Jonathan Czin

Jonathan Czin, former Director for China at the National Security Council, traces Beijing’s shift from cautious probing to confident offense with a practiced, insider’s eye.

Packed with insight into how today’s superpowers think about strategy, signaling, and power, this conversation is essential listening.

Out now, only on One Decision. 

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