CJNG Leader "El Mencho" Killed in Security Operation (Global Guardian)

CJNG Leader "El Mencho" Killed in Jalisco, Leading to Retaliatory Violence Across Mexico

On 22 February 2026, Mexican military and law enforcement agents undertook an operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco to capture (or kill) Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), and the most wanted man in both Mexico and the U.S. He was the head of the most powerful criminal organization in Mexico. El Mencho, along with several other key leaders within the CJNG, were killed or captured in the operation, which was supported by U.S. intelligence.

Following the operation were widespread shootouts and cartel blockades across multiple states in Mexico, starting in Jalisco and radiating outward as the news spread. Criminal actors hijacked and burned vehicles, attacked gas stations and small businesses, deployed tire spikes on roadways, and engaged security forces in multiple armed confrontations. Multiple airlines cancelled flights into Puerto Vallarta, Guadalajara, and Mazatlán out of an abundance of caution. While the violence began in Jalisco state, there were over 250 confirmed blockades in 22 states. Authorities indicated nearly all roadblocks were cleared as of early morning hours on 23 February.

Municipal governments and schools in multiple states were closed on Monday, 23 February, amid ongoing concerns of violence. The U.S. Embassy in Mexico City issued multiple alerts to U.S. citizens to shelter-in-place. The latest alert establishes remote-work and shelter-in-place orders for U.S. government personnel for 23 February in Guadalajara (Jalisco), Puerto Vallarta (Jalisco/Nayarit), Ciudad Guzman (Jalisco), Cancun (Quintana Roo), Playa del Carmen (Quintana Roo), Cozumel (Quintana Roo), Reynosa (Tamaulipas state), and Tijuana (Baja California).

Large-scale disruptions are a common retaliatory tactic used by criminal groups after high-level arrests or leadership targeting. The intent is to create operational chaos, slow security force deployments, and pressure authorities regarding detained figures. A similarly disruptive but more localized version of this happened in Culiacan, Sinaloa in 2019 during an attempted arrest of Ovidio Guzman, one of the sons of El Chapo. He was released from custody after more than 700 cartel gunmen laid siege to the jail where he was being held.

Ongoing recommendations in violence-impacted areas:

• Shelter in place. Do not leave your home or hotel.
• Do not attempt to travel by land.
• Monitor local news and government notices.
• Utilize Global Guardian for secure transportation.

Short-Term Outlook

The CJNG is the dominant criminal organization in Mexico, with influence in most states. The death of their leader will likely cause a violent internal power struggle across their territory in the coming days and weeks. This is a familiar pattern within organized crime groups—the death or capture of a leader leads to a power vacuum, often fracturing the organization along competing lines or familial loyalties as is ongoing with the Sinaloa Federation split. 

Long-Term Outlook

• This operation is likely the first of many across Mexico targeting leadership of the cartels designated as narco-terrorist groups by the Trump administration. It shows the U.S. has the intelligence to pinpoint cartel leaders, either through human sources or advanced technology.
• It serves as a warning to other organized crime groups that Mexico, at least on a federal level, will not be dissuaded from carrying out such operations and that it has the support of the U.S. government and the newly established U.S. Joint Interagency Task Force–Counter Cartel, or JIATF–CC, which provided a "targeting package" on El Mencho to the Mexican military.
• The Mexican government remains under pressure to carry out similar operations in the future or risk U.S. "boots on the ground" to carry out Maduro-style raids on cartel leaders—something Mexico's President Sheinbaum very much wants to avoid.
• As we can expect more operations targeting high-profile leaders, we can also expect more retaliatory violence in order to make it as "painful" as possible for the Mexican state to impose its will on the cartels.
• Rival cartels will likely take advantage of the uncertainty and chaos within the CJNG to take territory, initiating a secondary wave of violence in areas the CJNG either competes in or maintains control over.

CJNG Spotlight - Succession Plan and Fragmentation

• With no apparent heir or succession plan, the CJNG is highly likely to fragment violently in spectacular fashion. Unlike the Sinaloa Cartel, a two-family organization that fractured along familial lines, El Mencho led an organization with a far larger number of high-ranking figures who lack blood ties.
• Powerful commanders such as El Jardinero and EL RR each control highly capable, geographically separated factions that do not rely heavily on one another. They oversee different trafficking corridors to the U.S. border and therefore do not necessarily need to maintain cooperation for their faction’s survival. Fragmentation will be violent and geographically far reaching.
• Yesterday, the CJNG retaliated in 22 different states across Mexico, offering insight into where the newly leaderless organization may fight. Conflict will primarily be between criminal factions, but civilians and government forces will be caught in the crossfire. The upending of longstanding extortion relationships will redefine businesses as legitimate targets, as rival CJNG factions will seek to cut off rival economic flows. Broken negotiations and trafficking relationships will also diminish criminal revenues, which will force CJNG factions to extract income from new sources. Kidnappings, vehicle thefts, and extortion of businesses will all rise.

 Fragmentation Benefits Certain Rivals

• The killing of El Mencho will severely weaken CJNG operations in Michoacán, where the cartel has fought a protracted war driven in part by El Mencho’s personal interest in regaining control of his hometown region. Their regional rivals, Carteles Unidos, may finally be able to drive CJNG out of Michoacán if the local CJNG faction loses national backing during what is likely to become a multi-sided internal conflict. Similarly, the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel, alongside its allies in the Sinaloa Cartel, will have a renewed opportunity to uproot CJNG from Guanajuato.

Public Sentiment

• Yesterday's events were an effective display of power by CJNG, revealing the true reach and operational capability of the country’s largest criminal organization. The scope and intensity of retaliatory attacks across 22 states likely surprised the Mexican government, while also reinforcing sentiment within Washington that Mexico struggles to manage its own domestic security challenges. February 22 will again signal to the Mexican population that the state is incapable of guaranteeing security. This event is the latest and by far the most extreme example of the country’s deteriorating security environment (Manzo killed, Silver mine kidnapping). If the 2019 battle for Culiacán was a regional catastrophe with national viewership, February 22 represents a national catastrophe with international visibility. The resulting insecurity will likely have ripple effects on Claudia Sheinbaum’s public approval, particularly regarding security policy.
• Sheinbaum likely learned from AMLO’s 2019 decision to release the captured son of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán under cartel pressure. That episode significantly damaged Mexico’s credibility domestically and abroad. Her response to the February 22 violence, marked by rapid military deployment and the use of heavy weaponry again demonstrates a clear departure from AMLO’s more non-confrontational security rhetoric. The necessary militarized response to the nationwide attacks further cements her reliance on the armed forces to combat organized crime, aligning Mexico with a broader regional trend toward militarized public security.

Implications for Washington

• The event will likely be interpreted in Washington as both a triumph in killing a top cartel boss and as a failure to manage the ensuing criminal response. The killing of El Mencho is the most significant elimination of a cartel leader since Pablo Escobar, offering a major symbolic victory for the U.S. However, CJNG’s ability to rapidly demonstrate nationwide disruptive power may imperil its long-term interests by making it politically impossible for U.S. leaders to ignore the cartel threat. The scale of the retaliation will likely revive debate around treating cartels as terrorist organizations through U.S. military action inside Mexico.

Other International Attention

• The 22 February retaliatory violence significantly damages Mexico’s international image and will raise concerns within the global community, particularly because Guadalajara, one of the host cities for the FIFA World Cup 2026, was the epicenter of the CJNG retaliation. This event will be foremost in travelers' minds and may attract scrutiny from FIFA.
• The events are also likely to inflame regional tensions with Guatemala, which again deployed security forces to its northern border amid fears of spillover violence from cartel activity in Chiapas. These concerns are credible given that both Mexican criminal groups and security forces have crossed into Guatemalan territory in past years.