Iran & Trump's Trip to China, By John J. Mearsheimer (May 1)1

On 8 May 2026, I was on Rachel Blevins’ popular podcast talking about President Trump’s never-ending troubles in Iran and why they are going to hinder him in his upcoming visit to China.

When Trump moved back into the White House in January 2025, he thought that he had huge leverage over China, as reflected in his attempt to impose especially high tariffs on Beijing.

But the Chinese struck back, reminding Trump that the US was heavily dependent on rare earths, and thus Washington had hardly any leverage in the trade war. Trump backed off. And then came the Iran war, which is a disaster for Trump, in part because the war is working to China’s advantage.

Thus, Trump is playing a weak hand as he heads to Beijing. President Xi Jinping surely recognizes he is playing a strong hand and will act accordingly.