French, American efforts converge as Lebanon navigates escalating tensions, By Mounir Rabih (today.lorientlejour.com)

Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri shows French diplomat Stéphane Séjourné a map showing the damage caused by Israeli strikes on Lebanon, Sunday April 28, 2024, in Ain al-Tineh. (Credit: Mohammad Yassine)

During his exhaustive diplomatic visit in Beirut on Sunday, French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné appeared to have gauged the situation on the ground while awaiting a response from Israel.

Undoubtedly, the primary focus of this whirlwind visit was to explore avenues for de-escalating tension in south Lebanon and forging agreements to stave off a full-blown conflict.

However, it allowed the French minister to engage in discussions on several fronts with key figures including Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Army Chief Joseph Aoun and Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib.

The gridlocked presidential election and the increasingly volatile issue of Syrian migrants were of particular concern.

Séjourné made a brief stop in Beirut as part of a regional tour that will also take him to Saudi Arabia and Israel. In Israel, he’ll join US envoy Amos Hochstein, who’s currently in Jerusalem on a personal visit.

Despite Hochstein’s personal commitments, he’s been actively meeting with Israeli officials to address the escalating situation on the ground, anticipating the outcome of the French diplomat’s tour.

The two men’s endeavors came after a recent meeting in Washington between Hochstein and the French envoy for Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian.

“During the meeting, Paris aimed to reinvigorate collaboration under a joint plan with Washington,” revealed a Western diplomatic source who spoke anonymously. “In this vein, France revised its previously submitted proposal to Lebanon, dubbed an ‘Israeli roadmap’ by Lebanese officials.”

These revisions align the French plan more closely with the American proposal.

An official source from Lebanon confirmed that Beirut has tentatively agreed to this proposal, contingent upon the cessation of hostilities in Gaza.

The American proposal entails a gradual implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701.

This involves, firstly, securing a cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel, followed by the repatriation of civilians on both sides of the border.

Secondly, it includes the cessation of all military activities and the withdrawal of weapons, concurrently with the deployment of the Lebanese Army and the United Nations Interim Force, bolstering their presence in the area.

Thirdly, negotiations are proposed to establish an internationally recognized land border.

The French proposal currently under development outlines a similar framework: Firstly, it indicates a halt to hostilities between Hezbollah and the Israeli army, aligning with the UN Resolution 1701. This would be followed by the safe return of border area residents, both in northern Israel and southern Lebanon.

Additionally, the plan entails bolstering the strength of the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL, with necessary assistance provided for this purpose.

‘Worst case scenario’

During his meetings in Beirut, Séjourné conveyed to his counterparts that France is actively pursuing an agreement, with a roadmap currently in preparation and set to be transmitted to Beirut through diplomatic channels.

While emphasizing that “Lebanese perspectives are being thoroughly considered” in France’s endeavors, the diplomat underscored that any conclusive proposal hinges on ongoing discussions with the Israeli side, even if things are “on the right track.”

Echoing this sentiment, Séjourné’s Lebanese counterpart also emphasized a collaborative approach.

“We haven’t delved into the specifics of this proposal, which we anticipate receiving in the coming weeks following consultations with relevant stakeholders,” Bou Habib informed the press.

During a press briefing after his tour in Lebanon, Séjourné struck an alarmist tone.

“A few weeks ago, we were discussing the possibility of risk. But today, escalation has become a stark reality and it serves no one’s interests, including Hezbollah’s,” he cautioned. “Preserving Lebanon is France’s responsibility,” he added, urging all Lebanese parties to fulfill their obligations.

Highlighting the pivotal events of April 13 to 14 (when Iran retaliated against Israel for an attack on its consulate in Damascus), the French diplomat said, “This was a turning point.”

“We vehemently oppose the worst-case scenario, which is war,” he insisted, stating that the same message was conveyed to Israel.

Séjourné disclosed that he held discussions with the heads of UNIFIL, stressing that the organization plays a pivotal role in averting a catastrophic scenario.

He urged all parties to aid UNIFIL in carrying out its mission effectively.

“We maintain our support for the Lebanese Army, whose presence in the south is crucial for maintaining stability,” he reiterated.

In conclusion, he said that the effectiveness of these efforts hinges on the functioning of Lebanese institutions.

“Without a seated president and government, Lebanon’s representation at the negotiating table will be compromised,” Séjourné said.

The issue of the presidential crisis was also broached during discussions with Berri, who informed the French diplomat that “the quintet continues its efforts to convene consultation sessions aimed at electing a president,” as per a source close to the speaker.

Additionally, Berri addressed the matter of Syrian migrants, urging France, alongside Germany, to reconsider its approach toward the Syrian regime. He emphasized the necessity of dialogue and negotiation with Damascus to facilitate the return of Syrians, thereby alleviating the strain on Lebanon, as reported by the same source.

Furthermore, during the meeting at Ain al-Tineh (Berri’s residence), the speaker presented Séjourné with a map (prepared by the National Council for Scientific Research, CNRS) illustrating the extent of damage and losses resulting from military operations in the south.

‘Redeployment' not ‘withdrawal’

Ahead of Séjourné’s visit, Lebanon requested that modifications to the French proposal refrain from mentioning a “withdrawal” of Hezbollah from south of the Litani, instead opting for “redeployment.”

This matter was deliberated during Mikati’s recent visit to Paris. French President Emmanuel Macron tasked him with conveying a message to Hezbollah regarding the imperative to distinguish Lebanon’s trajectory from that of Gaza.

Nevertheless, Hezbollah persists in rebuffing this request, asserting that the Americans must first apply pressure on Israel to solidify a cease-fire in Gaza, which would pave the way for de-escalation in Lebanon and enable diplomatic negotiations.

According to the Western diplomatic source mentioned earlier, the Lebanese authorities conveyed to the French that Hezbollah is prepared to engage in negotiations but insists on waiting until a cease-fire in Gaza is secured.

In light of this stance, a source with ties to Hezbollah dismisses the likelihood of success for the French approach while war persists in the Palestinian enclave. They assert that — unless the US takes the lead in the process — Hezbollah’s commitment to pursuing an agreement remains uncertain.

“The situation in Gaza and southern Lebanon is under the control of the US, and Hezbollah cannot commit to advancing toward an agreement until there is clarity on the unfolding events,” said the source closely associated with Hezbollah.

“An alignment between the French and American approaches is now inevitable,” said another Western diplomatic source close to the French, who preferred to speak anonymously. “The pivotal role of the United States and Hochstein efforts will be decisive.”

While the timing of Hochstein’s visit to Lebanon remains uncertain, arrangements for meetings can be initiated at any moment, particularly since he has been granted a travel visa to Beirut from the Lebanese embassy in Washington.

Several variables will influence his scheduling, with the advancement of cease-fire negotiations in Gaza being a key determinant.

According to the diplomatic source, the French are advocating for any potential cease-fire to serve as an opportunity for Lebanon to pursue a resolution rather than escalate tension further. However, the response to this sentiment was encapsulated by Abdallah Bou Habib, reportedly saying, “Lebanon did not initiate war; Hezbollah did. That’s the reality. While we hoped it wouldn’t unfold this way, it’s now an undeniable fact.”

This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Sahar Ghoussub.